China’s Solar Sector in 2025: A Resurgent Surge Amid Policy Headwinds
Beijing, November 2025 – China’s National Energy Administration (NEA) reported 12.6 GW of new solar capacity connected in October, up 30% from September and confirming a strong rebound after the mid-year slowdown triggered by the removal of guaranteed tariffs.
- Jan–Oct cumulative installations: 252.87 GW (+39% YoY)
- With the traditional year-end commissioning rush ahead, leading analysts now forecast 2025 additions of 290–310 GW, matching or exceeding the 2024 record of 277 GW.
The policy shift earlier this year eliminated fixed returns, prompting a first-half installation frenzy followed by a temporary lull. October’s sharp recovery shows developers have adapted to the new market-based framework and are accelerating grid connections again.
A 300 GW outcome would:
- Absorb significant domestic module output, easing global oversupply pressure
- Reshape 2026–2027 demand forecasts for polysilicon, inverters, storage, and grid equipment
- Reinforce China’s commanding position across the entire solar value chain
Key variables to watch through year-end:
- Pace of ultra-high-voltage transmission and storage deployment
- Regional policy incentives under the new pricing regime
- Actual December commissioning volume
After navigating policy turbulence, China’s solar sector has regained full momentum. 2025 is on track to set another global benchmark, with ripple effects that will be felt across worldwide supply chains, pricing, and energy-transition strategies for years to come.
